Higher high or lower low based on today’s open in previous day range

Similar to last post, but looking at today’s open to determine if the high or low will be reached.  Ranking is based on (today’s open – yesterday’s low) / (yesterday’s high – yesterday’s low)

decile open position w.r.t. yesterday range cross -33% cross low cross +33 cross +66 cross high cross 133% cross pivot CROSS MID lower low higher high
1 -7% 85% 77% 46% 22% 10% 6% 40% 32% 100% 10%
2 14% 52% 89% 71% 36% 15% 9% 60% 48% 91% 15%
3 28% 40% 74% 88% 49% 20% 9% 76% 64% 74% 20%
4 41% 32% 60% 96% 55% 24% 10% 84% 77% 60% 24%
5 57% 24% 46% 82% 77% 41% 18% 88% 95% 46% 41%
6 71% 21% 31% 58% 92% 59% 26% 83% 78% 31% 59%
7 83% 13% 23% 51% 88% 66% 30% 75% 68% 23% 66%
8 96% 13% 20% 38% 76% 85% 38% 64% 54% 20% 85%
9 114% 9% 17% 30% 55% 93% 52% 49% 39% 17% 98%
10 280% 7% 12% 23% 42% 67% 78% 36% 31% 12% 100%

In my mind, there are lots of interesting bits in this data.   Looking at the second column, over 10% open more than 7% of the prior day’s range below the prior day’s closing (now say that 5 times quickly), and 20% open 96% of the range or above (seems to indicate a day is slightly more likely to open above the prior day’s range than below).  Furthermore, the more extreme the open position, the less likely it is to cross the high or low of the prior day (based on the bottom decile for crossing the low is 77% vs 89% for the second to bottom decile).  Similarly for the top decile (67%)  vs the second to top (93%).

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