SPY higher high in next 20 days

Looking at Yahoo! data for SPY, I looked at days that were 20 day highs, and how much higher it would go over the next 20 days.   I was thinking this would show breakouts.

I grouped the data by the number of days since the last 20 day high (1 day being the previous day had a new 20 day high), the last row is all data (including days that are not 20 day highs).  I’m not sure if the differences are statistically significant, but the median max high (over today’s high) over the next 20 days seems to be around 2% whether today was a new 20 day high or not, and around 8% of the time you will not have a higher high.  Over the past 2 years the % gain over today’s high  have been larger, which is not surprising since it has been more volatile.   But the impression I have is that  a new 20 day high doesn’t indicate the price will rise much higher than than any other day. I may analyze by deciles at some other time, or compare the lows after a 20 day high.

days between 20 day high highest high next 20 days percent not having a higher high total occurrences
1 day 2.21% 7.59% 395
2 day 2.15% 5.83% 103
3 day 1.88% 1.89% 53
4 day 1.27% 9.68% 31
5 day 3.30% 0.00% 20
6 day 1.95% 6.25% 16
7 day 3.57% 0.00% 9
over 7 day 2.10% 8.20% 122
all days 2.22% 7.91% 4224

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