IWM new highs/lows leading to higher highs/lower lows?

I was trying to see if hitting a new high gave any indication of a continued strength – higher highs, upward trend.  For this study I used the last 2000 trading days of IWM, and looked at the percentage gain the highest high over the next x days was over today’s high. From all days, I limited them to only if today’s high was a 1 day, 2 day, … 200 day new high.  I further limited to see if it was a new high after x days (a base had been forming?).  I looked at lower lows also.  I am still puzzling over the significance of the results.  Generally speaking, a new high gives a slight rise in the % gain, but not very much.  Similar for new lows.  A base increased the % gain, but again, not by much.

percent of days that where x day highs median max (high  in x days) – today’s high / today’s high median max (high  in x days) – today’s high / today’s if today was a x day high median max (high  in x days) – today’s high / today’s high if today was a x day high, with gap of at least x days percent of days that where x day lows median min (low in x days) – today’s low/ today’s low median min (low in x days) – today’s low/ today’s low if today was a x day low median min (low in x days) – today’s low/ today’s low if today was a x day low with gap of at least x days
1 47.80% 0.05% 0.19% 0.18% 47.90% 0.06% -0.10% -0.16%
2 38.40% 0.41% 0.50% 0.65% 37.80% -0.37% -0.57% -0.62%
3 33.40% 0.68% 0.76% 1.04% 31.80% -0.62% -0.77% -0.83%
4 28.60% 0.89% 0.90% 1.11% 27.75% -0.80% -0.96% -1.08%
5 26.00% 1.09% 1.01% 1.21% 24.60% -1.02% -1.03% -1.27%
10 19.20% 1.90% 1.58% 2.03% 15.95% -1.78% -1.80% -0.93%
15 15.80% 2.52% 2.12% 2.00% 12.20% -2.17% -3.24% -2.93%
20 14.20% 3.17% 2.79% 3.17% 10.60% -2.42% -3.76% -3.24%
30 11.40% 4.07% 3.71% 4.84% 8.80% -3.00% -5.22% -6.48%
40 9.60% 5.06% 4.63% 4.69% 7.60% -3.60% -5.66% -7.65%
50 8.20% 5.53% 5.29% 8.55% 6.40% -4.27% -5.31% -6.44%
200 3.00% 12.34% 8.04% 10.93% 2.10% -8.34% -18.09% -15.22%
IWM 2000 trading days (around 1/2002)

What I think this means, for any given day, between now and 20 days, you have 50-50 chance the highest high will be at least 3% higher than today’s high and 50-50% chance the lowest low will be 2.4% below today’s low (it might do both).  And it doesn’t make too much difference if today was a new high or new low.  I think this needs to be studied more…

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