S&P year end highs

With SPY hitting new 52 week highs towards the end of year, I was curious what happened the following January.  Since 1951, using Yahoo historical data on the S&P index, this has happened 11 times, the table below shows over the next 21 trading days, how high the intraday high was over the year high, and now much lower the intraday low was over the low on the day of the year high.  The last column is 1 if the second column is greater than the third column, otherwise it is zero.

year high over next 21 days low over next 21 days high > low (=1)
2004 0.04% 3.95% 0
2003 3.85% 0.10% 1
1999 0.33% 7.69% 0
1998 3.12% 2.09% 1
1993 1.32% 1.17% 1
1992 0.00% 2.45% 0
1991 0.68% 0.86% 0
1963 3.21% -0.56% 1
1958 1.50% 0.58% 1
1954 2.14% 3.89% 0
1952 0.26% 2.75% 0

I can’t draw many conclusions from the data. Sample size is small, and about half the time the percentage higher is greater than the percentage lower.  If 2010 starts out similar to 2004, then expect the market to continue rising until last week in January.

A side note when there was a new high between the 20th and 24th of December, there was always a higher high before year end (1952, 1991, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004 had highs between the 20th and 24th with higher highs before year end).

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