IWM – early day follow through

I was looking at comparing the opening price with the close at 9:30, 9:35, 9:40, 9:45 to see if there was any relation to the high or low of the day.  I couldn’t find much.

median high after time close > open close < open
9:30 1.03% 1.04%
9:35 1.06% 1.00%
9:40 1.12% 0.94%
9:45 1.10% 1.02%

At the end of the first minute, if the price was above open, then the median high for rest of the day was 1.03 higher. If the price was lower, then the median high was 1.04% higher (above the close). Generally speaking, a higher closing price means higher prices for the rest of the day, but not that much different from a lower closing price.
Somewhat interesting is it seems a bit more likely that the end of day close will be higher than the open if the price is higher at 9:45

# close > open # end of day close > open and close at end of period > 9:30 open
9:30 190 97 51%
9:35 191 112 59%
9:40 194 131 68%
9:45 196 133 68%

Finally, I looked to see if number of times (9:30, 9:35, 9:40, 9:45) the price was lower than open (0=zero times lower than open, 1=1 lower [3 higher], 2=2 lower,..] would give any indication on closing price. As you might expect, the more times it was lower, the more likely the close would be below the open:

higher close lower close % higher close
0 57 23 71%
1 58 27 68%
2 32 37 46%
3 36 60 38%
4 26 60 30%
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