IWM following week $NASI closed below open after prior week close above open

Using the statistics from Stockcharts.com for the NASDAQ Summation index (ratio adjusted) ($NASI), I looked at when the weeks opening value was higher than its closing value, and the prior  week the open value was below that week’s closing value.  It happened 12 times for the data I have (since mid 2007).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p15651453920

next week date week open – prior close week close – week open week close – prior close week high – prior high week low – prior low
6/11/2007 -0.13% 1.92% 1.79% -0.34% -0.30%
1/7/2008 0.26% -2.86% -2.59% -4.90% -4.15%
5/27/2008 0.23% 3.19% 3.42% 0.14% 0.86%
8/25/2008 -1.04% 0.89% -0.15% -1.45% -2.24%
9/8/2008 3.31% -2.46% 0.86% -1.61% -0.34%
11/17/2008 -0.65% -10.29% -10.94% -11.52% -13.40%
5/18/2009 1.12% -1.06% 0.06% -0.28% 0.59%
8/17/2009 -2.06% 5.15% 3.09% 0.98% -2.02%
9/28/2009 0.64% -3.70% -3.06% -1.40% -3.31%
10/26/2009 0.28% -6.50% -6.22% -2.25% -6.32%
11/30/2009 0.12% 4.83% 4.95% 0.96% -0.31%
1/25/2010 0.55% -3.18% -2.63% -4.42% -1.96%
median 0.24% -1.76% -0.04% -1.42% -1.99%
average 0.22% -1.17% -0.95% -2.17% -2.74%
min -2.06% -10.29% -10.94% -11.52% -13.40%
max 3.31% 5.15% 4.95% 0.98% 0.86%

Looking at the data, there seems to be a slight downward bias. Although it opens higher than the previous week’s close on 8 of the 12 weeks, it closes higher 6 out of the 12 weeks (no real bias for the close). 7 out of 12 weeks it closes below its open. Not strongly negative bias, but some. On the other hand, nine out of the twelve weeks the high is less than the prior weeks high (with a median of 1.42% lower) and 10 of 12 weeks the low is lower than the previous weeks low (with median of 1.99% lower).

PS.  Since last week’s RSI analysis was fairly indicative of how this week turned out, here is a similar table to last week.  In this case, the RSI went from 88 percentile to 96 percentile (of the last 52 weekly RSI(10) figures), I looked for patterns similar to the 98%, 88%, 96% percentile rankings of the last 3 weeks.  This paints a more bullish picture of higher lows and higher highs.  Eleven data points is a rather small sample size.

intraday high intraday low week close open high low
median change 1.77% -0.92% 0.30% 0.22% 1.37% 2.39%
<0 0 8 5 4 3 3
>0 11 3 6 7 8 8
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