inside day followed by outside day that is outside the prior 2 days

Today on the IWM was an ‘outside day’ of the prior two days, the high was higher than the high of the last 2 days and the low was lower than the low of the last 2 days, and last Friday was an ‘inside day’.  Since 2000, we have had 14 similar days .  Looking at the days:

Date Open High Low Close day / inside / outside-2 open-prior close (close-open) (high-open) (open-low)
11/1/2010 70.66 71.17 69.31 69.82 0.27 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
7/6/2010 60.86 61.5 58.66 59.04 0.13 0.30% 3.17% 3.26% 0.39%
3/25/2010 68.87 69.36 67.79 67.84 0.03 0.41% -0.46% 0.66% 0.82%
1/7/2010 63.74 64.22 63.14 64.17 0.95 -0.36% 0.91% 0.91% 0.22%
6/10/2009 53.38 53.41 51.61 52.6 0.55 0.10% -0.06% 1.54% 0.13%
9/2/2008 75.01 75.5 73 73.85 0.34 -0.27% 0.68% 1.43% 0.35%
10/11/2007 84.59 84.89 82.66 83.3 0.29 -0.02% 0.65% 0.96% 0.08%
7/18/2006 67.82 68.25 66.62 67.9 0.79 -0.09% 2.45% 3.18% 0.09%
2/7/2006 72.27 72.59 71.15 71.25 0.07 0.27% 0.36% 0.56% 0.78%
4/26/2005 117.96 119.13 116.05 116.78 0.24 -0.45% 0.41% 1.14% 0.88%
12/27/2004 130 130 127.65 128.35 0.30 0.09% 1.24% 1.35% 0.00%
2/21/2003 71.7 72.81 71.15 72.32 0.70 -0.18% -1.36% 0.00% 1.37%
10/23/2002 72 73.74 71.6 73.56 0.92 0.46% -1.42% 0.32% 1.53%
4/17/2001 88.75 91.1 88.75 90.7 0.83 1.60% 1.30% 4.18% 0.16%
7/6/2000 103.66 104.84 102.69 104.84 1.00 0.02% 0.61% 1.00% 0.00%
median 0.05% 0.63% 1.07% 0.29%

Looking at the median, the next day price (which will be November 2, 2010)  typically opens a little higher, and has an upward bias – the median close is above the open by .63%, with open to high up 1% but the open to low down only .3%.

That looked promising until I looked at the SPY (whose low for today was slightly above 2 days ago, so for today, it doesn’t match the criteria ), where there were 19 occurrences since 1995. For SPY the median values were -.01% open vs prior close, -.04% close vs open, .57% high vs open, .76% low vs open, which is a more bearish bias. Bottom line seems to be there aren’t enough data points to make predictions.

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