July Historical Performance by Day

I have seen several studies on the web of the performance of the market for a given month.  I was looking at the data, and using my normal procedure of using yahoo! adjusted prices, and taking the median of the month to trading day changes, I came up with the following chart for July.  The leading ‘7’ indicates July data.  700-710 are the first 10 trading days of the month, and 711-720 are the last 10 trading days.  Results are cumulative (that is 720 is the price change from the end of the prior month through the close of the current month).  I looked at IWM and SPY for the 2000’s and SPY for 1990 and later.

 

For the 2000’s there seems to be some initial weakness followed by recovery, and then more weakness.  SPY for the 1990+ didn’t have the initial weakness, but still reached its maximum in the middle of the month and eventually lost all the gains for the month.  Time will tell if this behavior holds for 2011… the first day is usually an up day, but not the 1.5% gain of July 1, 2011.

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