SPX 52 week High in November / December

I was looking at the Yahoo! data for SPX going back to 1960, to see how often there were new 52 week highs in November & December.

28 times (out of 55 years) there weren’t any new 52 week highs, 23 new years had a new high in November, 20 times a new high in December, and 16 times both November and December.  So, over the 55 years, there is about 50% chance at least one new 52 week high; and if there is a new high in November, then it is likely to have a higher high in December nearly 70% of the time.

However, if July – August time frame of the year didn’t have any new 52 week highs (20 years), only 4 years had a new high in November/December (1961, 1984, 2004, 2010).  the odds rise slightly if only look at those where you also had a 52 week high in January – March, but none July-August (3 times out of 9).

Looking at the distance from the prior 52 week high the October close, the average (median) close on the last day of October was -2.2% (-1.5%)  below the prior 52 week high when it had a new high in November/December (SPX was about -2.4% below the high this past October 30).  The average (median) close for October for months that didn’t make a new high in November/December was -12% (-10%), with only 3 years (2007 @ -1.0%, 1994 @-2.0%, 1988 @-1.6%, ) that had a close above  this year that didn’t make a new high.  Here is a breakdown by distance from prior 52 week high at the close of October.

 below prior 52 week high  # of years  new 52 week high nov/dec
0% -2% 18 89%
-2% -4% 9 89%
-4% -6% 6 33%
-6% -8% 4 50%
-8% -10% 3 0%
-10% -12% 3 0%
-12% -14% 2 0%
-14% -16% 3 0%
-16% -18% 1 0%
-18% -20% 0
-20% -22% 0
-22% -24% 1 0%
-24% -26% 2 0%
-26% -28% 1 0%
-28% -30% 0
-30% -32% 1 0%
-32% -34% 0
-34% -36% 0
-36% -38% 1 0%

So, if you are looking at the fact we haven’t had new 52 week SPX high while in several months, it seems unlikely one will happen in November/December.  But if you look at the distance from the 52 week high the October close was, then it looks likely to have a higher high before year end.

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