S&P 500 Draw downs from All Time Highs

Rather than look at bull vs bear markets, I decided to look at draw downs from all time highs.  The top 25 draw downs (since 1950 using Yahoo! and other data, excluding the current draw down) are in the table below. A few observations:

  • The longest stretch was about 6.6 years between all time highs – 1973 through mid 1979, and that was preceded by one that was between 1969 and 1972. it was followed in 1980 (though 1982) with another 27% draw down.  1968 high (108.37) to the 1982 high that broke the draw down (142.46) was about a 2% compounded yearly gain – excluding dividends.
  • The two worst draw downs were in the 2000’s.
  • After you get past the top 4, the length of time between all time highs decreases noticeably – almost always than 2 years.
  • Draw downs over 20% only occurred 9 times in the past 68 years (although 44% of the time was in one of those draw downs).
  • typically,the low is before the middle of the time period.
drop between highs START low date END years
-56.78% 10/9/2007 3/9/2009 3/28/2013 5.5
-49.15% 3/24/2000 10/9/2002 5/30/2007 7.2
-48.21% 1/11/1973 10/3/1974 7/17/1980 7.5
-36.06% 11/29/1968 5/26/1970 3/6/1972 3.3
-33.51% 8/25/1987 12/4/1987 7/26/1989 1.9
-27.97% 12/12/1961 6/26/1962 9/3/1963 1.7
-27.12% 11/28/1980 8/12/1982 11/3/1982 1.9
-22.18% 2/9/1966 10/7/1966 5/4/1967 1.2
-21.47% 8/3/1956 10/22/1957 9/24/1958 2.1
-19.92% 7/16/1990 10/11/1990 2/13/1991 0.6
-19.34% 7/17/1998 8/31/1998 11/23/1998 0.4
-14.82% 1/5/1953 9/14/1953 3/11/1954 1.2
-14.38% 10/10/1983 7/24/1984 1/21/1985 1.3
-14.16% 5/21/2015 2/11/2016 7/11/2016 1.1
-14.02% 6/12/1950 7/17/1950 9/22/1950 0.3
-14.02% 8/3/1959 10/25/1960 1/27/1961 1.5
-12.08% 7/16/1999 10/15/1999 11/16/1999 0.3
-10.80% 10/7/1997 10/27/1997 12/5/1997 0.2
-10.59% 9/23/1955 10/11/1955 11/14/1955 0.1
-10.23% 10/9/1989 1/30/1990 5/29/1990 0.6
-10.16% 1/26/2018 2/8/2018 8/24/2018 0.6
-10.11% 9/25/1967 3/5/1968 4/29/1968 0.6
-9.76% 3/20/1956 5/28/1956 7/16/1956 0.3
-9.63% 2/18/1997 4/11/1997 5/5/1997 0.2
-9.60% 5/13/1965 6/28/1965 9/27/1965 0.4
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: